Re: Calculating $EV on pushing over raises?
Here's how you work out the correct range (I assume you are on the BB).
Type stacks into an ICM calculator, for each possible outcome:
EV(fold) = 10.44 (1400 stack)
EV(steal) = 13.39 (1850 stack)
EV(win) = 20.55 (3050 stack)
EV(lose) = 0 (busto)
The number of ways of making various types of hands:
unsuited = 12
suited = 4
paired = 6
{55+ A8s+ AJ+} = 3*12 + 6*4 + 10*6 = 120 combinations
{TT+ AQ+} = 2*12 + 2*4 + 5*6 = 62 combinations
So from this we can work out the probabilities:
P(called) = 62/120
P(steal) = (120 - 62)/120 = 58/120
Set P(win) = X , P(lose) = 1-X
Now lets work out your EV relative to folding:
%EV = P(steal)*EV(steal) + P(called)P(win)EV(win) + P(called)P(lose)EV(lose) - EV(fold)
%EV = 58/120*13.39 + 62/120*20.55*X - 10.44
To find the value of X which is breakeven set %EV = 0 and solve for X:
0 = 6.47 + 10.62*X - 10.44
X = 3.97/10.62 = 0.3737
So every hand you push needs >37.37% equity vs {TT+ AQ+}
PokerStove it and you end up with the pushing range {99+ AK AQs+}
|