View Single Post
  #3  
Old 11-23-2007, 08:58 AM
eurythmech eurythmech is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Relocated East
Posts: 2,626
Default Re: Calculating $EV on pushing over raises?

It's really simple to figure this out.

First you calculate your EV when the opponent folds, this is done with the help of a simple ICM calculator.
Such as http://www.poker-tools-online.com/icm.html

You then calculate the EV for when you get called, and lose. In this case, this EV is 0, but for cases when you cover villain, it will not be.

Then, calculate EV for when you get called and win.

Then figure out the total EV for getting called.
That is, run your hand against the calling range in poker stove. Let's say you are contemplating shoving tens here.

Run TT against TT+ AQs+ AQo+, this comes out as 40.3%.
I'm omitting ties here voluntarily, this saves us a few calculations, but causes the overall result to err slightly.
Very slightly. What you do then is multiply your EVcallwin by .403 and your EVcalllose by .597

Now, figure out how often he is calling us.

Opponent raises 55 pairs, 22 suited aces and 48 offsuit aces. This totals to 125 hands. Out of these 125, a total of 57 call us. Hence, opponent calls us 45.6% of the time.

Hence, our equity is .544 * EVFold + .456 * EVcalltotal

That make sense?
Reply With Quote