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Old 11-23-2007, 02:30 AM
NMcNasty NMcNasty is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 336
Default Re: Strange hand vs CTS

My first thought at looking at this hand was "wow you have an overpair a ton of outs and he could easily have clubs here so call" but you've really got to fold. I think he's got a 7 almost always. The only hands it really makes sense to check this flop are suited connector hands with a 7, 77, and nothing. He might check a flop like this with an overpair to be super-tricky every once in a while, but then what's he doing on the turn with a shove? It would be turning his hand into a bluff.

High clubs are possible but its just a bad board to bluff, and I think he's smart enough not to. EP raise, midposition reraise, and then when poster just calls a mid-pair is going to be a huge part of his range, probably the majority of his range. So overbet shoving that turn is just running into sets or a straights that are autocalling you pretty frequently. He would have to be insane enough to be counting on you to fold overpairs almost always here for any semi-bluff to be profitable.
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