Re: [200nl] raylapsley observed hand, is his bluff here +ev?
Raylapsley is an excellent player who uses aggression well.
I think he'd probably agree that he's been a little tired with his thinking in this hand though.
In isolation, I like the shove on the river- however it doesn't fit with the story he's tried telling on the turn. Viz, on the turn he's representing a 9 with his raise (a flush draw would most likely have raised on the flop)- yet on the river he's now representing a Q or a made flush.
Also, it's a dangerous play because when his opponent has called his turn raise it could well be that he has the flush draw himself- and so is obviously calling on the river.
As it happens, he was a little unlucky (with his turn play) that he was up against what I would suspect was a poor calling station as most players would fold the turn there OOP with stronger hands than QJ.
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