[Nick Rivers]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf does this even mean. there is very clearly an answer. the answer is call or fold. they can't both be worse than the other. and folding isn't a losing proposition, it's a 0EV proposition.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the long run, folding is a losing proposition. Why don't you play 1000 hands and fold every single time you have the chance. I'd wager you'd be below your starting point. Folding at this point in the hand nets you zero EV from here on out, but, in the more general sense, folding is a losing proposition, and when you allow yourself to get put in spots like this, folding sucks.

To answer Shizzle's question, I'm just saying that a call here is probably pretty close to zero EV. It's impossible to calculate it exactly, of course, unless you knew the villain's range of hands precisely. Given what's plausible the way this hand went down, you could be ahead or behind, and it's impossible to know which. You will probably lose more often than you win, but the pot equity brings your net EV from a call somewhere back close to 0 ev. Just my opinion. I think fretting over this decision isn't really worth a lot. You could run hypothetical scenarios over and over and still get no closer to the truth. Could he have aces? Yes. Could he have JTc? Yes. Could he have 77? Yes. How about 67s? Yes. 45c? It's conceivable. AKc, AQs, QQ, KK, TTT, stone cold bluff, you name it. The range here is huge. Also, do you figure he has put you on a hand. What do you think he thinks you have? It's CTS, so he probably thinks you have JJ. It is times like these where you have to rely on your poker intuition, because a precise calculation of how your hand compares to his is virtually impossible. He knows that if you don't have a straight, this is a very tough call, so that really widens his ability to make a powerful move here. At the same time, he knows you know he knows this, so he could move in with a straight just the same.

I think wondering about what to do here is not the way to analyze this hand because the EV from this decision against the range of possible hands the villain has is pretty miniscule positive or negative. The way to analyze it is to learn how to not get put in this spot again. That's where the real gain in EV lies. This is why I'm saying you might as well flip a coin, because it doesn't matter that much and I don't see how there is really a clear and obvious choice between call or fold. Anyone who disagrees with that premise, that there is no clear choice, will obviously disagree with the rest of my analysis, and that's fine.