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Old 11-22-2007, 05:22 PM
DevinLake DevinLake is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Calgary, Alberta, Canada
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Default Re: ($27) 77 against LAGG on undercard flop

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hypothetical situation, we some how got in this spot with 87hh. Would you c/r it?

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do you mean with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

he's a lagg, so'll say he'll rasie preflop with: 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo or even a wider range.

against those hands 77 is an about 60:40 fav.
8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] will be an 45:55 underdog.
8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] c/f.

because he is loose and aggressive, you should have to figure out what he has. if think a push would'nt be that wrong too here (with both hands), but it depends on his all-in-showdown-hands.

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I meant 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] because it will play very similiar to 77 when you c/r unless you are A) calling a shove when you c/r or B) he just flats your pot committing c/r.

I think him just calling is rare. So, the only time your actually equity comes into play is when you actually go to a showdown and he has some short of combo draw that you are flipping against. If he calls with an over pair, 87hh has very similiar equity with a backdoor straight and flush draws as 77 does with it's 2 outs.

So, with stack sizes I think the c/r is a bad play unless you are willing to get it all in against a range that includes draws (usually 50/50) or over pairs (20/80), which isn't a good scenario. And I don't really like c/r off ~1/2 my stack to find out where I'm at. And I don't like raising off 1/2 stack just to fold when there is the possibility I'm flipping against overs and a fd.

One more thing. He's lag yes, but I doubt he's raising nearly the range you are suggesting. So far he's raised 24% of hands. The range you are suggesting is 15%. Normally, even lags will be someone situationally aware. So, they probably aren't raising 24% of hands from any position. They are more likely to be opening very wide from LP and tigtening up as they move farther from the button. Given that, and the fact there is a tight early position limper and I think 15% is an overly optimistic range.

So, just to summarize my thinking here. With a c/r in this spot with these stacks, you are simply hoping he folds. That's the only scenario you like. Therefore, it doesn't matter what your cards are. You're doing this solely on the basis you think his preflop range is wide enough, and he c-bet often enough that he will fold enough for this to show a profit. It really has nothing to do with your equity in the pot so 77 basically = 73o.
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