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Old 11-22-2007, 03:06 PM
Milky Milky is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 996
Default Re: KJs vs LP mcTAG opener

Good post bozzer. Here are some things to consider though. First off, assuming you're called, even your 25% equity isn't that great, as you're going to end up in RIO territory a lot. Also, lets say you flop a King. Is are QQ/JJ going to pay you off? Probably not. What if the flop comes J high? All you're beating at that point is AK, which probably isn't paying you off either. And if you flop a draw, you'll just have to get it all-in on the flop with very little FE.

Now, if villain is positionally aware, his CO opening range is pretty wide (22+, suited+offsuit broadway, SCs down to 54s, suited aces, etc). Just calling leaves you in position against a range where you're almost 50/50 (46% equity according to PS). Also, if the blinds come along it's really not a bad thing, KJs plays decently multiway, plus you have better implied odds. Also, you have less invested in the pot if you totally miss the flop and face aggression.

Basically by 3betting here you're relying on him folding >55% of the time in order to make it a profit, so you really could have ATC here. And actually, if you change KJs to 72o, you're still only a 20% dog to JJ+/AK. It just seems to me that KJs plays well enough in position against a fairly wide CO raising range to throw it away on a bluff. Now, if he's not positionally aware and his range is a lot tighter then I can see you raising and hoping he folds, however I'd rather have a hand like 76s or something and honestly I'd probably just toss both of them as he's probably calling my 3bet more.
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