Re: bottom 2-pair on the turn
Bingo. Great post James.
In the hand I unthinkingly 3-bet. Villain called. River he check calls and shows AA.
Upon further reflection I realized that calling the turn is better. After 3-betting I narrowed his hand range to
{AA, AK, AQ(discounted), KK, QQ, KQs, small % of random crap}
against this range, I know exactly what his outs are... any A, K or Q means I am beaten. Anyhing else means I have an edge. Further, there is no river card that will cause him to check the hands I am beating.
This is a perfect spot to just call the turn check-raise, and wait to raise the river until I am sure it's one I like. I get an extra bet from the random spew-bluffs, and save money when he draws out on the river, or when he already had me but appears to have drawn out (as much as two big bets if I have the courage to fold given my read).
By 3-betting the turn, I lose one extra big bet (at least) any time an A, K, or Q would have hit the river. That means I've lost probably 1/3 to a 1/2 a big bet with my unthinking play. Ouch!
Note that the play would be exactly the same holding KQ... Wait for the river, then raise if it isn't an ace, 6, or 5.
-eric
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