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Old 11-22-2007, 10:04 AM
Legislurker Legislurker is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 728
Default Re: WTO\'s impotence???? Serious question

The WTO isn't impotent. Its power lies in avoidance. Strip away bananas and beef and a couple other disputes the gorilla has never had to be woken. "trade wars" are never profitable
for either side. Its the presence of a global vs many bilateral pacts that makes the modern trade system workable.
So the power of the WTO, soft power, if you want to call it that lies in the fact that its absence is a HUGE loss of value to the citizens of every participating country. Everyone with a goddamn clue(excluding the USTR because they dont) in policymaking realizes how much of a boon MFN is. Look at modern industrial goods and they all have multiple points of origin. If everyone started to break the rules, the system would collapse. Look how long an issue takes to resolve, something in the line of 5-6 years. Each country could probably file hundreds if not thousands of cases and break the back of the dispute body. So most disputes are handled outside the formal mechanism, and things keep moving smoothly. Any trade disruption causes major ripples across the whole system.
A case at the WTO is like a game of chicken. Two nations drive at each other and discern which car is bigger(who has the best case) and the small one veers off and its over. Except the drive is a long one with a lot of pissing out the window and trash talk. A collision is in no one's best interest. The US is perhaps taking the first ever decision to drive head on into a better case. How ugly
can or how ugly will the WTO make it is kinda like a porno with a plot for trade economists and policymakers. A lot will depend on the other members and how seriously they take the US not observing common courtesy if you will pardon the term. If everyone agrees we are being [censored] and punishes us, the WTO has power. If not, then no. Thats why you see the shuttle diplomacy of Antiguan officials.
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