Thread: Newbie Question
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Old 11-22-2007, 09:41 AM
PokerXanadu PokerXanadu is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 17
Default Re: Newbie Question

#1. First step is to put your opponent(s) on a hand. What are they likely to be holding? For example, if they are likely to have the four flush, then you can't count the flush cards as part of your outs. There aren't any more hard and fast rules to counting outs (like fd = 9 outs) that you should know. Every hand is different, and you should count your outs each time. For instance, if you have a flush draw, you don't have 9 outs if your opponent has a set - you can't count the outs that would pair the board.

2. I don't count the bets; I count the pot. Just look at the chips in the pot and count em up. You can ask the dealer to spread the pot to make it easier to count. In pot limit, you can just ask the dealer to count it for you.

3. For pot odds, count the pot (not the bets). Then calculate how much it costs to call the bet versus the amount you can win. For example, if there is $100 in the pot and someone bets $50, it costs you $50 to win $150 (the $100 already in the pot plus the $50 bet). So you are getting 3 to 1 on your money. You also have to factor in things like: Are there any players yet to act after you? Are they likely to call the bet, adding more money to the pot? What is that chance that they will raise, making it cost me more to stay in?

4. The 4/2 rule, as mentioned by MNSUgoMAVS!, is the easy method. However, the 4/2 rule is slightly askew - by about 10%. If you need better accuracy: On the flop multiply your outs by 4 and then subtract 10% of the result to get your odds to hit your hand by the river. On the turn, multiply your outs by 2 and then add 10% of the result to get your odds to hit your hand by the river. Also, the math falls apart when you have a large number of outs (like a flush draw and a straight draw and overs). In such instances, if you use the rule of four, it will look like you have an 85% or more chance of winning. Whenever the figures work out like that, you are usually about 65% to win (assuming your opponent is ahead in the hand at the moment).

When applying pot odds, don't forget that on the flop your odds to win are based on seeing it all the way to the river. If you are chasing a flush, straight, etc., you have to also figure in that it will probably cost you more on the turn to see the river card. If you have multiple draws and the odds say you are 60% or better to win the hand, it's a good time to reraise. But if you are chasing just 8 or 9 outs, be careful about how much money you put in the pot - it's easy to get pot committed and it will cost you a lot to see that last card, when you are way behind.
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