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As I have said in the past that I am not a big proponent of the Dow Theory(IMO I feel it is WAAAAY too late of a signal)
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What is your favorite signal/signals of a coming bear market?
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From a TRADERS perspective ....I use much faster time frames with regard to TA , along with some FA to assist me .Since leaving WS on a permanant basis....I obv. still trade my family/personal accounts quite often.....in fact DAILY of late....ESP. when the volatility spikes as it has the last month.Yesterdays close,was almost a "throw in the towel" mentality before the holiday WE,after the market failed to rally the last HR,and any good trader saw that coming a mile away.
However it was in NO way a capitulation type collapse that I would REALLY like to see in order to put in some/ANY sort of short term market bottom.Making LOWER LOWS in during these sell-offs is STILL very negative IMO
These recent FAILED attempts at rallying have been met with WAVES of selling/shorting the majority of the last 10 sessions or so....esp. in the final HR.
Below is another FREE program that will give you a FASTER buy/sell signal time frame ..using a 13dma and 50 dma crossover.....it actuallywill give you a RED SELL signal....and GREEN BUY signal at the bottom of the chart.The chart I have showing is SPY(which is the ETF instrument containing the basket of stocks in the S+P 500).If you look at the lttle RED SELL signal showing in the middle of the page....it was actually cinfirmed early LAST WEEK.As a shorter term trader...the DOW THEORY signal....is WAAAY too late for me.
If anything....I can see the market(as I mentioned above) having a HUGE RALLY before years end,as the BEAR CAMP is also getting abit too crowed for me,from a contrarian POV
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/d...3fSymbol%3dqqqq
Obviously....it is NOT 100% reliable and in NO WAY am I implying it to be "the end all be all" of trading......but IMO its a great little tool to learn technical analysis and a fun thing to tinker with for the new guys.It actually is quite accurate when in comes to some positions on a SWING TRADE time frame basis .You can enter any stock, ETF,etc [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
On a personal note about some recent questions I have been asked:
I have been heavily SHORT the finanacial and home building sectors since the JUNE/JULY disclosure of the first signs of the sub-prime mess...and STILL am
I also RECENTLY shorted the S+P,and QQQQ's(actually LONG QID) last week once again.
I have also started SHORTING some WAAAY overheated tech stocks that have BEEN FAILING miserably the last two weeks.
I am starting to make some sort of game plan as to COVERING some of these short positions coinciding with bottom fishing/BUYING-COVERING some of these beaten up stocks in the financial arena before years end.
A successful play/HEDGE that has worked GREAT over the last few months... "was" to SHORT the financials,and go LONG tech.It has been quite profitable...but that trade is getting overcrowded now too
I will update this often ,and answer any NON specific questions as to MY OWN personal holdings.If a MOD could make a consolidated thread about DAILY TRADING/POSITIONS or something,that would be great.... BUT:
***I cannot get into much detail as to MY ACTUAL positions ,nor RECO. any particular stock . I am still a registered rep(even though I dont deal with any public clients anymore on a business relationship)
Some of these other STOCK FORUMS have become breeding grounds for PUMP and DUMP schemes,front running,fraud,ect. Also being the former CEO of my firm, I am still bound by some disclosure issues for 2 more yrs.
I OBV still have my LONG TERM holdings,funds,stocks/bonds that I really dont even look at...as the things I will talk about are regarding my trading/short term ideas only****
I can however STILL talk about the market in general terms though [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
Happy Thanksgiving Guys
Stephen [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]