[maxtower]

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I don't think its as easy as David thinks to handicap the stock market.
A good FA can determine the value of a company with enough accuracy to make money when its shares are mispriced.
We know the market price, and thats how we can tell whether or not to buy the company.
What I don't understand is how you come up with this other number about the expectation of price. Shouldn't the expectation be the value you determined?

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No. Suppose you know that the Giants have a tight end that has a particular pass move that is tough for the Packer cornerback to defend against. But you also know that the public doesn't know about that or take it into account properly. So your line will be different from your anticipated line. And therefore when it is you can explain it.

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I don't agree. I think this is an apples to oranges comparison. There are thousands of computers and smart people with lots of money who move the markets. The average player in the stock market is not a layman. The average sports bettor is. I still contend that this "third" parameter doesn't exist. Either that or I still don't fully understand what you are talking about. I don't see any difference between valuing a stock with FA, and this "third" parameter you're talking about.

FA guys value the stock. That is their handicap of what price they think it should be. The market price is the other variable. They bet accordingly. Give me a stock example of this "third" parameter.