Re: TPGK oop
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I see what you mean- i misread your reply the first time around. Alright - i'll recant the first part of my suggestion, how's the rest of the logic look to you?
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flop call and turn call screams flush draw to me in low stakes IME, though a read would have been helpful as many low stakes players shut down on turn if they miss. Really the only hands we should be worried about here are QJ KJ or AJ IMO.
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Pretty good. Now, lets take into effect that he shoved the river.
Very few people are shoving QJ/KJ/AJ on this river. It has too much showdown value and a shove ruins it all because you are very rarely goging to get looked up by a worse hand, like never. So we can almost ignore those.
Which takes his range down to sets/910/busted draws imo. Sets very unlikely, usually they make themselves known by the turn (even though a set needs to raise this flop).
So, then we pull out the math (which im too lazy to do) and it will result in:
villian is shoving a busted draw x% of the time for this to be +EV.
Therefore, if you think x< how often he is bluffing you call, and vice versa.
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