Re: Worst downswing ever?
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With Poker EV, you can tell how much of a downswing is due to short term allin luck and how much is due to things not so easily quantifiable.
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I don't know enough about PokerEV to say definitively, but from my own usage of it, I don't know that it'll ever be able to tell the whole story. For example, there will be times where you have top set and correctly bet the flop and turn, only to payoff a bet on the river when an unlikely backdoor draw comes in. The software will list it as losing Sklanksy bucks, but it's not like the hand was played incorrectly.
Ultimately, I think protracted downswings are caused by a bunch of factors that all sort of play off of each other: 1) loss of confidence and a bad mental state; 2) not hitting enough flops to justify putting any significant amount in; 3) the times you do hit, no one else does, so you only win a smallish pot; 4) losing more than your share of coinflip situations; and 5) continually running into the fat end of your opponents' ranges (i.e. coolers).
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It doesn't tell the whole story, but I think it helps keep you from starting to running down the road of playing bad if you are getting all-in lucky.
Also, if you run into the bad end of your opponent's range it is often hard to figure if you really are running into the bad range or perhaps your rangefinder is offkilter.
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