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Old 11-21-2007, 06:09 PM
Sushiglutton Sushiglutton is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Searching for fish
Posts: 2,048
Default Re: weak one card OESD?

Maybe I should give some more explinations so people can repeat.

Step 1:
Put all villains on ranges before our action.

=> X, Y1

Step 2:
Decide which part of their ranges the two guys behind us will give up if we raise but will continue with if we just call.

=> Y3

Step3:
Compute the equity for our hand depending on the ranges we are facing.


Step 4:

Calculate how much our winning chances improve if we raise (that is making hands in range Y3 fold, we remove them). This is the most tricky step. I use this formula:

(6.9/14.8)^2 * (26.274-21.148) + 2* (6.9/14.8)*(1-6.9)/14.8 * (20.661-18.857)


Let me explain the different parts.

(6.9/14.8)^2 = (6.9/14.8)(6.9/14.8) = Probability(MP3 holds a hand he will fold) * Probability(BTN holds a hand he will fold)

Why is that 6.9/14.8? It's the ratio of the hands in the folding range and he ones in the entire range. I here make the simplifying assumption that these two events are independent.


(26.274-21.148): The difference in equity if both calls compare to if they both folds.


(6.9/14.8)^2 * (26.274-21.148): Together we get how much equity we get extra if they both holds Y3 hands and fold them times how often this event will occur.


Now we do the same thing for the event that one of them holds a hand in Y3 (and folds it) and the other one in Y1.
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