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Old 11-21-2007, 04:05 PM
RapidLearner RapidLearner is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 43
Default Re: NL $25 - Resteal from the blind gone wrong?

I would fold preflop and try to get a better read than "he raised the button last time." There isn't much one can infer from 2 steals in a row other than the fact that the guy can raise in position.

If you're unfamiliar with Bayesian inference, you can check it out here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference

It's also discussed in <u>Mathematics of Poker</u>. You need more evidence about villain's play to reraise liberally here.

As played, if stacks were deeper, I find that people are less likely to cold call out of the big blind with an AX hand than they are a pocket pair. This flop misses most of those PPs, so I would bet and give up on the rest of the hand if called/raised, unless a really great bluff card shows up on the turn. You should be able to fold out JJ-22 (which didn't hit their set), and possibly QQ or KK.
With deeper stack sizes, if villain cold-calls out of the big blind with a hand like AQ or AJ and refuses to fold the flop, make a note of his looseness and take him to valuetown the next time you DO have a hand like AK/AQ/AA/77/22 in this spot.

As played with the actual stack sizes, c/f all streets unless you runner-runner 2pair+ on a check-down.
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