Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
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the 30-35k hands is including my downswing (was only 4-5BI but some bad plays).
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Ah, ok. That makes it more more plausible that you are a winning NL $100 player.
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my current downswing is way beyond any recognizable std dev (-19PTBB/100 over 7k hands), I think there is no argument that a lot of this downswing is probably from bad runs.
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That is much lower than a plausible losing rate. However, it's much more likely that you can find some period (starting with hand 1) in which you are 3 standard deviations below average than that you will do in a fixed period. So, it's not clear that this is an outrageously bad streak as opposed to just uncommonly bad.
However, there is a potential benefit. In case you are a losing player, losing rapidly saved you a lot of time.
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