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Old 11-21-2007, 02:26 PM
Sherman Sherman is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Ph. D. School
Posts: 3,999
Default Re: calling shortstack pushes with crap

#1 is an easy call IMO.

#2 is an easy fold. Don't think, "I am getting almost 2:1". You are either getting 2:1 or you aren't. Also, run pokerstove against his range. Do you really think you have 33% equity?

I often see people convince themselves that they have 33% equity just b/c a short stack pushes and they are getting 2:1. But a short stack push and you getting 2:1 odds doesn't mean that at all.

Some short stacks are super nitty, even when short. 92o isn't a very strong hand. It is 39% against a random hand, that is 39% against ATC. If he is shoving a top 78% hand you have 34.5% equity. If he is only shoving 51% you only have 31% equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.319% 30.31% 01.01% 3985349976 133293720.00 { 92o }
Hand 1: 68.681% 67.67% 01.01% 8898557304 133293720.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }


So don't just convince yourself that you have to call b/c you are getting 2:1. Think about his range and your equity against it too! Of course, in most cases you will be correct to call getting 2:1 from the BB. But not in all of them. It seems likely to me that this isn't a case where calling is good.

As a last point, some villains shove tighter when they are very short than when they are kinda short (and correctly IMO). They know they have "no" FE, so they demand that their hand have more showdown value (i.e. be better). You may want to keep that in mind when assigning ranges to very short stacks of thinking players.

Sherman
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