Re: Playing the EPL
"it seems that the true likelihood of Chelsea winning is closer to 80% or 90%"
There is a huge difference here. The half Kelly stake for an 80% bet at -350 is 5%. The half Kelly stake for a 90% bet at -350 is 27.5%.
The great thing about the Kelly criterion is that it'll make you put your money where your mouth is.
Olympic will take a 5k bet on an EPL money line, the same as an NFL spread. I know nothing about the EPL, but this leads me to believe you're not going to find very many large edges.
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