Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
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I was a 5-6PTBB/100 winner at NL100 for about 3-4 months over about 30-35khands.
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Ok, but do you have a track record which is actually strong evidence that you are a winning player at some level?
For a fixed interval of 32k hands, 0 is close to the edge of your 95% confidence interval if your observed result is 5-6 PTBB/100. It depends on your standard deviation/100. After n*100 hands, your 95% confidence interval is roughly observed +- 2 (SD per 100)/sqrt(n).
However, this wasn't your complete record. You also went on a downswing at NL 100 afterwards. You can't just pick your winning stretches, and declare that those represent your true win rate. A breakeven player or marginal loser is very likely to be able to find some pretty long upswings.
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