Thread: odds to chase?
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Old 11-21-2007, 04:34 AM
iheartponeez iheartponeez is offline
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Default Re: odds to chase?

In spots like this just start very conservative. You have 3 outs. The three tens that aren't the ten of spades. So you have a 6% shot of hitting on each street. (The big mistake people make is thinking they have 12% odds to call, not realizing that they might be facing a much larger bet on the next street). So 6%, about 1 out of 17. You can call each bet here, getting slightly less than 17-1 odds, because you can expect your opponents will pay you off the .30 or so it takes to get the correct odds. Since this very tight estimate looks good, it all looks good.

PS: I'm only this conservative in multi-way pots. You can't really count on any out in pots like these, except ones that make you the nuts. Any A or K is liable to give someone a 2-pair. Any spade is a flush. It's just not unlikely enough that nobody has hands like spades or KQ, AJ, etc. to warrant putting money in with pair outs. You want the ten, that's all you want, and that's perfectly fine here. 3-way is close, but I tend to play it close to the chest, all the same.
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