Re: Huge Value in CFL
I've read some stuff on Kelly, but I wasn't a stats major so it makes my brain hurt. I tried using the fancy calculators at a few other sites, but I couldn't figure out how to do it. I asked for someone more well versed to chime in on this and got no responses.
1u at +950(Sask)
1u at +1500(Winny)
They play each other so +950 is a guaranteed winner.
Winny is an 11pt dog to Sask. The ML is ~ -410 now. OP seems to think Sask is undervalued at -410.
Gorilla math tells me:
Betting 5.5u on Sask ML would win me more money if Sask wins, but I would still win 9.5u if Winny wins(very unlikely). Obviously there is a point somewhere between 0-5.5 units bet on Sask that is most profitable, depending on how likely they are to win.
Using the current ML (-410) gives them approximately an 80% chance to win. OP thinks they are undervalued at that.
I know absolutely nothing about the CFL, so I don't know how to determine that.
If I thought they were 80% to win, wouldn't I bet 4.4u on the Sask ML( 0.8*5.5u)?
|