[NT!]

i think if the pats had a choice between samuel and moss they'd sign moss. samuel is clearly going to go for max dollars and the pats are not going to pay that for him.

i also don't think they'd want to franchise Moss. it would piss him off. i think there's a decent chance he resigns at a reasonable deal, it would have to be no fluff, mostly guaranteed, 3 or 4 years.

it would be hilarious if they franchise samuel again but i doubt they'll do it. i think he's a good CB but still somewhat a product of the system, not going to be worth what he'll command.

i would guess right now that the probabilities are something like.

1. sign moss, let samuel walk
2. both walk
3. franchise moss, samuel walks
4. sign samuel, moss walks or signs
5. franchise samuel, moss walks or signs

with one and two not being far apart, and the rest being fairly unlikely.

i think they'll trade down and draft mostly for the front 7 on defense. pats have shown that they can find talented, good-fit skill players in the latter rounds and i think they'll continue to do that. if the draft is deep or if they can find someone desperate to get mcfadden they might trade for a 1st rounder plus more this year, if not i expect it would be something like 2nd round this year plus at least a first in the future.