[Billy Bibbit]

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if not his poor start, then what is the projection based on? it can't be on his draft reports b/c beyond the strength issues he was deemed to be capable of greatness.

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No, it's because "very unlikely to be as good as Dwight Howard" is the default, even for someone as highly touted as Durant was/is. He has shown nothing that makes me rate him higher than I did in June, but the fact that he's been a little disappointing so far isn't the main reason I'm saying this.

Maybe we just disagree on how good Dwight Howard is going to be.

Wait, are you comparing Durant's future value to how good Howard is right now? In that case you're probably right, but doesn't it make more sense to talk about the future of both of them when they're both very young players?

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i can think of three from the same draft: wade, lebron, and melo.

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I don't remember anyone predicting at this point of his rookie season that Wade would be this good. I do remember people predicting that Anthony would be a Top 5 player, but that probably wasn't that great of a prediction. James is the one guy in the last twenty years I was referring to.

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His stats and the way that he is playing remind me a lot of Kobe during his rookie year. I think you are WAY premature with the above comments.

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A lot of players showed those kind of flashes when they were rookies and only three of them became Bryant, James, and Wade. That's why people are saying Durant is unlikely to be as good as Howard. When Bryant was a rookie, one would have also considered him unlikely to reach the level of a Top 5 player in the NBA.