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Old 11-20-2007, 03:19 PM
Pokey Pokey is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
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Default Re: 25NL AA Fold or Push

[ QUOTE ]
villain is a 36/30/2
villain hasnt really been aggressive.


[/ QUOTE ]

Uhm...whuh?

How can a 36/30/2 not be aggressive? This guy is an aggro-monkey preflop and postflop he's not that much different.

The preflop smooth-call and the flop check-raise indicate to me that he's either hit a set (88/66 most likely) or he's got top pair and he's value-betting against your trash. There's one easy way to find out which he has: you can push. In that case, he'll fold all the hands that you beat and he'll call with all the hands that beat you. Since this isn't exactly the outcome we'd prefer, I'd rather smooth-call the flop bet.

You're heads-up, you're in position, and you've got a really strong hand. Why fold out hands that you're crushing? In my mind, I'm pot-committed now; my goal is to get BB all-in along with me. If I smooth-call this flop bet, BB will frequently bet again on the turn, and usually it will be big. At that point, I can smooth-call again and get it all-in on the river. If villain checks to me on the turn I can check behind -- this will put villain into an absolute aggro-frenzy, and he'll open-push most rivers. Even if he doesn't, my river push will look very suspect and I'll get looked up light.

The board is dry and safe, so I'm really not afraid of anything (other than another Q). I see no reason to blow my opponent off his hand; let him do the betting, because calling down is going to be more +EV than pushing or folding.
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