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First of all what I am saying is unquestionably correct in the real world. I will get to that in a minute. In the theoretical world I am saying that that if Jack is right about something 90% of the time and Jill is right even as little as 51%, then when they disagree, Jack's probability has gone down to 89.9% or whatever. If they are totally independent chances it easy to figure out the exact answer. You are saying Jack's probability doesn't change because they are not independent. He will get every question right that Jill will, plus more. If that was the case Jill's disagreement means nothing.

But that total lack of independence is obviously not the case in the stock market or sports betting. And once that is true, my contention MUST be true. It isn't even a contention. It is just an irrefutable math problem. If there are two differing opinions the true answer lies somewhere in between. On average. But closer to the guy who gets things right more often. As long as the other guy is better than random.

As to the real world, how can it not be obvious that I am right? Experts who use the Buffett-Graham-DesertCat technique make their play when their figures show they have some required big edge. When the smoke clears they are ahead, But obviously not to the extent that they thought they should be. Otherwise they all would be trillionaires. So the true price lays somewhere between their's and the market's.

Now why that should be the case is not clear. It is obviously sometimes because someone is illegally trading on inside information. But that is too rare to fully account for the syndrome.

When technical analysts say that the market will tell you where a stock is heading they are probably morons. But it is not moronic to say that the market is one of the best experts in telling you what a stock should BE. There are a few people who are even a little better than that. But if they are disagreeing with Mr. Market they should be very aware that the disagreement could signify that they have made at least a partial mistake.

BUT, their discomfort and trepidation should reduce if they can PINPOINT the reason why Mr. Market is disagreeing and refute his reason. When that happens they don't need to give themselves as large a margin of error.

I can't believe I'm going through all this again like I did thirty years ago in poker. You guys all need to just shut up, do what I say, and make more money.


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This is where it is answered.

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This doesn't answer the question the kem asked nor the questions I asked. Thanks for playing though.