[One Outer]

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Ricks:
Mitke

We have the 2nd nut FD on the turn.

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And we have a GS to a straight as well. I'm not folding the turn. I'm folding the river UI.

I'm just trying to ask is my way of thinking wrong in general if I decide on the turn (considering the ~7:1 to calldown) not to go to showdown UI and to re-evaluate in case we improve - peeling the turn in any case.

I try to elaborate:

I'd fold red kings on the turn on the premise that I think we are behind too often that getting ~7:1 to calldown to be profitable and that out outs are tainted.

I call in this current spot as we have the odds to call. I'm not calling the river because I thought we were behind too often for calling down ~7:1 to be profitable..

Hmm.. come the river it's 14:1 and the 1BB we put in isn't ours anymore. So, re-evaluate to estimate if it's possible SB was donking a TP or something often enough for calling 14:1 to be profitable. I guess it's a crying-call all the same. I wouldn't call if it still was ~7:1.


So my previous blabbering didn't make any sense here and I was just messing around with my own head... just consider the streets in isolation if you decide to continue.

My apologies to the OP for this off-topic discussion.

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I think this is more or less correct in the abstract but it doesn't apply to this hand. In the red KK example there are much fewer ways you can win the pot. Given the number of draws the hand in question has you can't make a showdown decision mathematically on the turn.

I'd fold this river, fwiw.