[moldman]

Any reads here?
I'm pretty sure I lean towards bet/fold on the river, although I take this line sometimes, but usually on a more drawy board. On the flop, I'd put most people on 44, 55, 88-QQ, with it being a tad more weighted to the lower side, as I think QQ repops preflop a lot, and you'd think an overpair would lead or raise this flop. Your small turn bet might look like a weak double barrel from AK/AQ and he might think his 88 is still good.

Now on the river though, you check and he bets. By checking, you're pretty much hoping to induce a bluff and are calling, otherwise you should be betting. The board isn't really draw heavy though, so I don't really understand his bet on the river. If he thought you missed your overcards, why is he betting? Like I said, reads would really help in assigning a range to him, but assuming a decent player, I'm calling here because of the price though and would expect to be shown JJ 40% of the time and QQ 40% of the time, and 44-55 about 15% of the time. That leaves about a 2% chance of TT and 3% chance of AA-KK.

At least somewhere around there. Of course, I'm often an idiot, so take it all with a grain of salt.


EDIT: I missed the villain's stats in your post. Having seen that, it's much closer to a fold. He probably checks behind with QQ here considering the 1 AF. You're looking at 44, 55, TT or JJ here the majority of the time.