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"Edit: And let me make it clear that I don't ignore the market price. I have to understand why something is so cheap and why I disagree with the market, just to be sure I've allowed for all known risks. If something is just mysteriously cheap, that's a red flag that I don't understand it properly. But I don't adjust my value estimates for it."
Yes you do. Your comment is an oxymoron. Unless your definition of "value" is something other than "the price where you have no edge whether you buy it or short it".
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I think we are arguing over whether I should use price as a signal to alert me that my valuation may be incomplete, or whether I should use the market price directly in my valuation. I can't just average in the market price. I can't even adjust how I weight my risks (that's done rationally with the best information at hand). But I can review the risks of the investment to see if I missed an important risk that I didn't weight at all.
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Meanwhile in spite of the hard time I have been giving you, and in spite of the fact that you are way more experienced and successful in the stock market than I am, would you be so kind as to tell this fellow Stephen that his posts are way off base.
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David, you know as well as I that no-one on 2+2 is under your or my control (though I'm flattered you asked me). Stephen is a good guy with a strong professional background that adds to this forum. He also happens to be very enthusiastic, but that's a big part of his charm
Thanks for all you've written here. I don't really agree with you, but I enjoyed thinking through your arguments, maybe someday soon I'll say hi in the Bellagio and give you an updated opinion.