[ieee754]

It might be boring but I still dont get it right.

Is this ever a +EV Spot?

Lets run some numbers:

The first number alwasy represents how often I think what happens.
e.g. AJ/AQ I think he calls my push 10% of the time with those hands.
75% of the time I win his 25$ and 25% of the time I lose my 25$.


- He folds to my push. 40% of the time. I win roughly 10$ from the pot.
0.4 * 10

- He calls with AJ/AQ. 10% of the time (very unlikely, but who knows).
0.1 * (0.75 * 25 - 0.25 * 25)

- He calls with any PP < KK/AA. 30% of the time
about +/- zero. I think I lose money here because Im a little dog and because of the rake.
0.3 * -2

- He calls with KK. 10% of the time
0.1 * (0.3 * 25 - 0.7 * 25)

- He calls with AA. 10% of the time
0.1 (0.2 * 25 - 0.8 * 25)

And am I right that he only has AA/KK ~5% (2 * (3/50*2/49)) of the time?

When run through a calculator this evals to -3.1.
So isnt this a -EV spot, or is my math just plain wrong?


Thanks.