Re: Live straddle with A4s on the button, and QQ in which I knowingly
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I'm essentially playing against an old lady that will play any two broadways and suited connectors (up to even three gappers), one random hand and two almost random hands. I have to be doing better than 20% equity there, right?
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I did a Monte Carlo simulation on PokerStove vs a lineup of one player with a random hand, two players laying the top 75% of hands, and one player playing any pocket pair, any ace, any two broadway, and any suited connectors up to three-gappers all the way down to 52s.
After about 11 M games, your equity seemed to be converging at 21.5%, and you're going to outperform your equity because you have position and hopefully play better than your opponents pre-flop. Tighten up the old lady's range, and you do worse. For example, you get about 20.9% equity if you remove suited connectors with gaps from the old lady's range.
Generally, I think too many players play too loose and too passively against a straddle and I wouldn't mind adopting a raise-or-fold mentality in this spot pre-flop, especially against a straddler who three-balls it liberally (although I might consider call-reraise against a straddler who auto-raises).
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