[ColdDecker333]

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I call without reads always. When you have 3 diamonds, this is almost always naked ace bluff and you get great pot odds. I put villain on a set + naked ace or a low-end straight + naked ace.

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I'm not sure of your logic of why this is almost always a naked ace bluff. Is it a math thing? If so could you please explain it to me - I feel kind of stupid. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

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We get something like 1:2.7 or so on our money, so the call should be righ only ~30% of the time to be profitable. We have 3 diamonds in our hand and there is three in the board. Also villain could be valuebetting worse diamonds, we have Jd. Call without reads. We have enough left on the river for villain to think that big bet puts our hand to the muck. If we had less than $400 left, I´d consider folding way more often.

Also if this flop would have been seen 3-ways, I´d consider folding much more often.

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I obviously understand the question of pot-odds, but was asking if there was maths to prove that "When you have 3 diamonds, this is almost always naked ace bluff" or is it just the fact that we have three diamonds and there are three diamonds on the board? Obviously that makes it less likely that he has any diamonds, but why is it almost always a naked ace bluff compared to the nut flush?

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You just said it yourself - there´s already 6 diamonds out there, and this is HU situation post-flop, so mathematically it is not very likely that villain has two diamonds. If he is willing to bet that river big, it´s usually Ad as a bluff, this time it was air.