Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
pretty sure i reluctantly fold. i woudl call sometimes though, and it's kinda hard to explain but it depends on the flow of the match, particularly if he is a little tilty, and considering the fact that piejay doesn't usually follow through on the river if he misses a draw in this spot. also, fwiw, there are ties i do call a little more lightly in situations like this against piejay because if you ever make a big hand vs him on some mediocreish suckout, he tilts like a maniac and it's worth giving up a little EV to get him off his game.
he's got a set, J9, or TQdd, TKdd, Jxss, or some 9Xdd, all with relatively equal frequency, imo. I don't really think he's folding any of his hands except for the occasional pure bluff, but that's like 5-10% of his range tops.
tc
|