Re: another big fold
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I think this is close enough given his stats, because I wouldn't expect him to show up with even AK here given his line. However I still wouldn't fold, we need ~31%, v this range we have 30%. When we start discounting combos of AA and QQ which he would usually 3bet with, we have the necessary equity to call. Plus this range is really really tight, there is a possibility he may have A6, maybe AK
Board: As Qd 9c 5d 6h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.000% 50.00% 20.00% 5 2.00 { AA, QQ, 66, AQs, A9s, AQo }
Hand 1: 30.000% 10.00% 20.00% 1 2.00 { AhQs }
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Theres almost no way this guy has A6, and most likely not A9 either.. it would be an outrageously loose call from SB against a UTG raise from this guy.. Furthermore, If he has A6, he re-pops on the flop IMO, expecting OP to have AK, AJ, AT...etc...A6 is too weak to just flat call here, especially for a nit.
As mentioned in my other post, the river raise is not ideal for AK as well..I see AK and maaaaaaaybe A9 as the only other possible hands besides AA, QQ and 66.
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