[ocklind]

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As I like your thought process and all I think this conclusion is wrong.
Better one would be :
"if he is tight and solid player as I think he is the fold is correct". If he is really "good" you cant assume he is playing in such a predictable way that his range is top 2 pair + here and if he is good he may guess that you would fold almost everything in that spot so he could c/r you with air often.

Every time you make a statement like "if he is a good player he has something almost always here" there is something wrong with one of the two assumptions.

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"if he’s a good player, we should fold this, right?"

By this I mean that he prolly can put us on a big hand, that will call his C/R and therefore only do it with legit hands. So the "good" player should assume you dont get many hands to fold on the turn and therefore wont bluff here. U agree?