Re: Need help conceptualizing the constant \"e\"
If your estimate of the future price of all stocks is on average more accurate than the present market price, but at the same time you are not sure you have an edge investing, unless your estimate is at least 30% higher or lower than the market price, (because you admit you are not perfect) then barring weird discontinuous functions, you can conclude that the actual EV of a stock is on average somewhere in between your estimate and the market's estimate. (As long as the market price is not totally random.)
The subject arose because Buffett and DesertCat say the right way to invest is to know stock analysis, look at the information about a stock before knowing its price, estimate its true value, and then invest if there is a large discrepancy. I pointed out that this is fine but that the original estimate should be moved to varying degrees toward the market price. DesertCat disagreed. I said if you disagree you can't claim you need a large cushion to invest.
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