[willie24]

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Rarely do two propositions have an aproximate equal chance of actually being correct.

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so then, in my example, which is more likely to be correct? "yes" - which the level 1, 3, and 5 logics supported, respectively - or "no" - which the level 2,4, and 6 logics supported? there could be infinite levels of logic.

that one is in reality "more likely" is beside the point. according to my definition of the question, in reality, 1 answer is 100% right and one is 100% wrong. we just don't know which. therefore, to ignorant thinkers like us, the probability is essentially 50-50.


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The likelihood that a belief is true is measured relative to the justification one has for believing it. I might believe that Mt. Everest is the tallest mountain on earth because I think the name "Everest" sounds like it would be a tall mountain. That is a poor justification for the belief, and therefore my belief is not likely to be true given my reason for believing it.

Someone else may believe that Everest is the tallest mountain on earth because they have read that careful efforts to measure the height of the mountain indicate that it is the tallest mountain on earth. The belief is more justified in this case, and hence we would evaluate the belief in the second case as more likely to be true.

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right.

but this is an example in which level of logic is limited. we plateau at the level of your 2nd person. no one can really be more logical than he is regarding this question.

take the Princess Bride example:
hero puts poison into 1 of 2 cups of wine and then sets one of the cups in front of his opponent and the other in front of himself. the opponent must pick which cup to drink (hero must drink the other).

opponents line of reasoning (progressing in level)
1. you put the cup with the poison in front of me, so i'd be more likely to pick it
2. you knew i'd know this, so you put the poison in front of yourself
3. you knew i'd know you'd know that, so you put the poison in front of me
4....
5.....
etc etc

a humorous example, because most of us are smart enough to realize that the levels of "logic" here are infinite, and thus, with the information we have, we can never have much better than a 50-50 shot - but it illustrates the point.