[chezlaw]

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(the) premise that everyone is convinced they are right is wrong.

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i absolutely agree.

i didn't mean for that to be my premise. my example was with hypotheticals - an approximation of a scenario that can exist. i didn't mean to say that it always exists.

if the smartest man in the example says "here is my logic - but i don't know if it's complete - so i don't know the answer," that's probably more realistic...but it doesn't change the irony that he may be wrong, and the idiot may be right (for the wrong reason).

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Okay progress but the uncertainty in these issues is nothing to do with logics (complete or not).

but yes a complete idiot may be right by accident. On most interesting issues its not 50:50. Its come up many times in the reliogus discussions - its stunningly unlikely any religon is correct and someone who believe their religon is correct is being silly even if it turns out their religon is correct.

chez