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Old 11-18-2007, 01:34 PM
Pokey Pokey is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
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Default Re: AQ - 200BB deep vs Villain 170BB deep

Ah, the classic poker mistake of creating a big pot with a relatively small hand. You have TP2K. You're unlikely to improve your hand. You can't really stand up to much heat, but you've got a likely winner. So you...check-raise the flop after betting preflop? Jeebus, why??

My line would be to bet the flop, say $0.90 or so. If I get raised, I'm probably calling down. If I get called I'm going to fire another 2/3rds pot on the turn and maybe 1/2 pot on the river. Alternatively, you could check-call the turn and donkbet the river.

Instead, you take a line of raising big preflop (good choice) and then check-raising the flop. Your line SCREAMS strength. Worse yet, it's very unlikely to fold a stronger hand -- TPTK or better in the hands of a loose player is NOT going away -- but it could easily fold most weaker hands. This push is either a bluff or a monster, and I can't trust it to be a bluff often enough to be a +EV call. I'd fold here.

In the future, beware of revealing a strong hand WHEN you have a strong hand. I'd like this play much better if you had KQ -- at that point, it's a pure bluff, and you either win immediately or fold what is obviously a losing hand. As it stands, your hand has enough showdown value that folding makes you a bit sick to your stomach, but you just can't call the bet.

Note that this play is especially bad considering that you are OOP, drawless, and several streets away from a showdown with a weakly made hand. The reverse implied odds on your hand are astronomical, and by creating an even bigger pot you are setting yourself up for some extremely costly FTOP mistakes on this or a later betting round. Keep the pot small and try to angle for a showdown.
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