View Single Post
  #23  
Old 11-17-2007, 03:28 PM
Praxising Praxising is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Razz R Us
Posts: 831
Default Re: What would be the best limit to start at?

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I don't share your fatalism regarding poker, but even if you are destined to lose the next 4 times that you are drawing to a wheel, it doesn't matter, unless you think that you will lose more often, in the long run, than probability says you will.

[/ QUOTE ]I think of it as realism rather than fatalism, I've yet to see the research that proves the hypothesis that theory of large numbers applies to poker in this way. Ultimately, you'd have to find all situations where the pot odds are the same, played out to showdown, and see what the profit/loss is over a large number of hands for a large number of players. The specific hands would be irrelevant, the limit would be irrelevant, (tho' it must be limit games of the same type in the data set) the odds are the control and the money is the irreducible result.

I'm sure that f played out, the hands do win as often as probability says they will within an error range. I taught genetics, I know what a balanced polymorphism is and it depends for it's "balance" on the Law of Large Numbers. But I also know that law is indifferent to the individual, I also know there is founder effect, and while I am convinced the hand will win as expected, I am not convinced a player does. And even if the player does, I'm not at all sure that means all players will profit. Most especially in Razz.
Reply With Quote