[igetbadbeat]

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60/40 is a fair line of +/- 150. I think that's where the confusion came in

Unless you're saying -- which I think you are -- you think the true line is Houston as a 40% underdog to Silva, in which case you should have approximately 16% of your total bankroll riding on this fight at half-kelly (1/3rd your bankroll at full kelly).

-P

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While we're on the topic of comments on fights vs actual betting...

I will quote @ the end, but your writeup indicates you beleive Spencer Fisher is the favorite in his fight with Edgar...now that he's widely available @ +120 and had blipped as high as +130, shouldn't that be about equal to your bet on alexander? 51% @ +130 is insanely juicy...

Frankie Edgar (-135) vs. Spencer Fisher (+105)

Frank Edgar is 7-0 in MMA and 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Mark Bocek at UFC 73 and Tyson Griffin at UFC 67. Edgar was a collegiate freestyle All-American wrestler for Clarion University of Pennsylvania. He also formerly held the lightweight championship in the Reality Fighting organization. Edgar is from New Jersey and should certainly have the hometown crowd at his back.

Spencer “The King” Fisher holds a fantastic 20-3 MMA record (5-2 UFC) and fights out of the Miletich camp in Davenport, Iowa. Fisher comes into this fight off a unanimous decision victory over Sam Stout at UFC Fight Night 10 back in June. Prior to that win, Fisher lost by TKO to Hermes Franca at UFC Fight Night 8. Fisher has heavy hands, as evidenced by his 11 wins by TKO, but he also sports a solid ground game, ending seven fights by submission via armbars and triangle chokes.

This is a close fight, which is reflected by the close line. Fisher holds a significant edge in MMA experience, comes from a better camp, and should generally have better coaching and a better gameplan. Despite that, I’ve been more impressed with Edgar as a fighter. He’s got a stronger base of wrestling to build on, but he hasn’t shown the same striking ability as Fisher. Its very possible that Fisher will want to keep this fight standing where he’ll likely have a significant edge, but he’s also dangerous off his back. It’s not a situation where Edgar can neutralize Fisher’s skills by putting him on his back.

I expect this will be the fight of the night. Ultimately I don’t see significant edge from a gambling perspective, but I expect that Spencer Fisher’s edge in striking, coaching and experience will prove too much for Edgar