Villain is Poly_Baller a very solid pseudo-LAG who's a regular in this game. We've played together plenty but not recently since I've taken some time off. My image is fairly solid at the table and I've 3bet him a few times preflop which he hasn't called yet.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed)
Poker Stars Converter Tool from
FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)
Hero ($380)
Button ($304.45)
SB ($323.90)
BB ($52)
UTG ($527)
Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $50</font>, <font color="#666666">
3 folds</font>, UTG calls $36.
Flop: ($106) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $65</font>, UTG calls $65.
Turn: ($236) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.
River: ($236) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $265...</font>
I'm basically hoping for a hero call after the scare card hits and I checked through the turn. I'd normally check through but it seems like his entire range that beats me would bet this river. My stack size isn't really great for a checkraise and the only hand beating me that might check/call instead of bet is JT (and even that probably bets the river after I check through).
Like it or am I just being a variance monkey?