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Old 11-17-2007, 12:22 PM
gregorio gregorio is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 958
Default Re: NL10 Pocket 10\'s OOP HUD ??

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Folds.. since he's range is at most jj+ and ak.

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The range you give would be for someone who raises 3%
Villain here is raising 8% of his hands. That means something like 88+, ATs+, AJo+, KTs+, QJs, and his cbet on the flop doesn't necessarily narrow this range much without a read on how much he cbets, which cold be a lot for someone with AF=oo,although 3way, a low coordinated flop is the kind of flop many people will not cbet without hitting it.

Against this range, you have 55% equity. Other than flopping a set or overpair + SD, this is about as great a flop as you will get for your hand. Villain's most likey hand is 2 overcards, but your hand is vulnerable and it is hard to play the rest of the hand OOP. Even if you had air, a c/r will take down the pot a lot here, since it misses Villian's range most of the the time. You are in trouble against JJ+, and ATcc+, KTcc+, QJcc, which he has about 1/3 of the time. I put in a c/r here. Not only do we probably have the best hand, but sets, pr+draw and combo draws represent a big part of our range, so our hand looks ever stronger than it is. I fold to a 3bet, since we are ahead of his raise PF and cbet flop range, but way behind his 3bet range, which I would think is larger overpairs and overcards+FD, against which we have only 25% equity.

I think PF is fine, and 3bet PF is ok too, but if we don't 3bet, TT can play postflop without hitting a set, and this is a great non-set flop for us. Check/folding is weak/tight.
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