Re: JJ 3 bet pot 150 bb deep
crying call.
tho if Hero has been 3betting preflop a lot I could talk myself into a call more readily - .
We aren't WA of anything BUT pot is offering about 2:1 so we are pretty much committed to this pot now.
We gots about 3 outs (2 Jacks + 2 bd draws) so when we are behind we are crushed - best case scenario we are up against KQcc and are 45/55 his range is probably more like
Board: 9c Tc 4h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.544% 25.95% 01.59% 7708 472.50 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 72.456% 70.87% 01.59% 21047 472.50 { TT+, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, 8c7c, 7c6c, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs }
and that might be a little wide tbh tho he's quite aggro so I could see him pushing a naked fd or OESD here.
If his range here is QQ+ this is a turbo fold. (we are like 13% or so if thats the case)
I call here but hate it - given that I now have 1/3 of my stack in this pot have about ~50 behind which I can reload back to so folding isn't preserving a stack or anything.
I think I'd prefer betting $11 on this flop and folding to a raise I think betting $14 just tips it too far into pricing ourselves in for a call here. Also folding this hoists a big sign saying "I 3bet light - please run over me"
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