[MrBrightside]

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Was at a 1-2 nl game at T.I. a month ago and was in a hand with a pretty tight player. He bets half the pot, I call with nut flush and gutshot draw. Turn is a blank, he pushes about 1.5 of the pot, I flash my cards (frustration at the night of futility I was enjoying) and muck.


lol...you crackhead... you are only 20% to flush out on the river

Guy next to me says "good fold, you had about a 20% chance of making the flush" I say "I think it is closer to 25% but whatever" "no, no" he says "I read it in several books, with one card to go you only have 20%" I say "well, there are 4 suits, right? and 1/4 is 25% right??!!!" "Well, yes, I don't know the exact math behind it, but this has been proven by simulations and these are facts from people like Doyle Brunson" To this day I don't know if he was trying to put on the dumb guy act which I do sometimes or if he really believed it. He kept spouting facts and figures the whole night, but he never made money nor did he bust out so I don't know.

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ummm, you are leveling right? If not, he was right, you were wrong. There are 9 outs (not 13.. there are four of your suit gone) with 46 cards remaining. It's actually LESS than 20%, it's about 19.5%.