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Old 11-17-2007, 09:12 AM
Acevader Acevader is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 614
Default Re: Folding KK Pre-flop

[ QUOTE ]
In a typical "raise, hero 3-bets, villain shoves" scenario- you are -EV to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this as you know. Villains show up with QQ and sometimes AK here enough. IME.

Just from a maths point of view: Say at NL$200 with 100bb effective tight/solid UTG raises $8 and you hold KK in MP and 3-bet to $26. Villain then shoves all in and you have a decision for your stack. It's $174 to call and the final pot will be $397 (assuming $3 rake). We have $43.8% pot equity on our call.

If villains range is ONLY AA+KK we are screwed. However, if its AA+KK+QQ we have to call.

If villains range is AA+KK and half the combinations of QQ and half the combinations of AKs then it's about break even.

If villain ever (even rarely) chucks in some AKo or JJ type hands (perhaps he's tilted, perhaps he thinks you are 'at it', etc) then it's a very clear call.

I don't think there are many 4-bet pushers at NL$200 who's range is strictly and ONLY KK+ and for that reason I don't like a fold unless you identify a player that 100% is only playing that range. If you start to throw any combo's of QQ or AKs into the mix and you have to call.

I would also suggest that in the push situation I outline above you are, if anything, more likely to see a hand like AK since a lot of villains flat call a 3-bet with AA on the trap. There is also a very big advantage to them pushing say AKs in this situation.

Put yourself in solid thinking TAG villains position. You raise AsKs UTG to $8 and a solid TAG raises you to $26. What is solid TAG's 3-bet range likely to be? He respects our UTG raise so this is probably JJ+ and AK. JJ he probably mixes up between calling and 3-betting so it's maybe just half the combo's. How does AK fair against that range IF he calls with JJ+,AK+ all of the time we push - it's a 40:60 so we are not in good shape. However, villain won't call a push with all of that that range. He'll almost certainly fold JJ and AK leaving QQ+. Of that there are more remaining combinations of QQ than AA and KK and if he does call with QQ its a 50:50. Furthermore, he might actually fold QQ and, if he's you () he might even fold KK. We are only in truly terrible shape against AA.

In short villain won't have 3-bet here often enough with a hand that can call and beat us often enough to offset the advantage of taking down that $26 without showdown. Essentially UTG hero can use his image and the fact he has the final commitment decision in the hand (very important) to greatly increase the true value of AKs which is why he may well push it.
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