[Praxising]

Rusty, let's see if we can get this to be something a person like myself can actually use. Maybe let's start with one scenario and see if we can come up with a rule of thumb of some kind. Let's say I am only concerned with a wheel draw. I am on 6th and I have A345JK. My single opponent has xx4767 and my 15 seconds are ticking away. I have even had the foresight to jot down the cards under 9 on the board that were folded and they were a 6, 2 and 8. If he doesn't improve, I can beat this guy with a 7, 6 or 2.

This means that someplace in the deck are 7 cards that I can win with. 7 out of 36. Even I know 7 times 5 is 35 and can see I have a 1 in 5 chance. Or do I have a 1 in 6 chance? (I never remember that.) Anyway, looks like 20% to me.

In a standardly played hand, we'd have the antes and bring-in, a call and a completion on 3rd. Then a bet/call on both 4th and 5th. So, what is that? Four BBs? But he's gone ahead and bet and I'm deciding whether to call. So now we've got five. Five to one. Nice how it all works out, because of course we will now count the bets that are coming. At least 2 more unless I can get this turkey to call a raise.

So, this is why we raise with a better draw, right? So we always have the odds to call to the river in a limit game where we can, simply by the nature of the game, know we have the pot odds to call.

I'm trying to think of a common scenario where we'd actually have 15 outs by the time we have 6 cards. If his hand was that bad, I think I wouldn't need to calculate anything to know I am seeing the river.

I swear to you, Rusty, I don't try to be difficult, but what we are trying to do is always create this situation that makes is mathematically correct to keep putting in bets when what is probabilistically reasonable is to fold. So we raise third and reraise with three-wheels. And we hope and hope that those sets of 4 times we lose out of 5 or 5 times we lose out of 6 or whatever aren't all lined up back-to-back for months at a time.

You know, the thing is, it isn't we who will win 20% of the time, it is <u>that hand</u> that will win. What if when that hand wins it is the guy across the table who wins with it and we aren't even in the hand? What if the time we get the hand that would win, we get the bricks on 4th and 5th and can't get enough money in to see 6th and 7th? Or we were just out-of-position on 3rd and couldn't get a raise in and *had* to fold 4th? What if it wins four times in a row in a tournament and we go out before the money and we've used up all our wins for the next month and lose more of that money we shoved in so we could call?

I have to say, I think odds make a lot of sense in holdem and probably in stud hi or Omaha. And I think talented persons like yourself who get it and get it lightning fast can make a lot of money and I admire you, believe me.

But even if I can do it, in Razz, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't do it. It just doesn't make a bit of sense to me.

I'm sorry, thank you for trying. Seriously. You should write this up, anyway, because there are people lurking here who'd really like the info.