Re: Why are value investor types so rigidly opposed to TA?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how do you explain when something "blows through" a resistance level?
Barron
[/ QUOTE ]
Just put yourself in the position of the sellers and buyers, and you will figure it out.
What happens is that lets say MSFT reach $100 again and the added selling pressure puts the price back to $80. Then eventually the price reach $100 again and the sellers are still glad they sold for $100 since it seems that MSFT are "not worth" more then $100. The buyers at $100 are glad to be break even and some sell and some dont. But then all of a sudden, MSFT starts to reach $102, $104, $108 and then the sellers at $100 instantly realizes "Holy crap, I should never have sold that darn fine stock MSFT" since they now would have had a win. They seriously consider buying the stock back, despite the higher price, and many do. That leads to added buying pressue.
Also the old buyers at $100 (both times) are finally seeing some profit after a long time of red figures, and they are reluctant to sell now ("I knew I was right to hold on to this baby!"). That adds to the lack of selling pressure.
So this is a situation where pretty heavy price movements can occur in short time, often referred to "blow outs" as you said yourself.
Same thing when a stock price reach ATH (all time high). Then there is not a single stock owner who has a loss. Every single share owner is seeing a profit, and since there is noone to sell to get break even, you very often see a price rush when an old ATH is passed. Look for yourself.
[/ QUOTE ]
how do you know when this will happen beforehand?
Barron
|