[trixtrix]

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Some questions:

2. Would a guy who is a fantasy expert (say in NBA), be able to profitably beat the sport?

I ask this question because personally I don't think many of these fantasy experts can beat the sport. I think it takes more than just a understanding of the players and the sport to beat it betting.

Only problem is I don't know what it is that makes these fantasy experts fail at sports betting, despite having a strong knowledge the league's players and teams.

So why is it that these fantasy guys can beat the game?


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think of it as an extension of the peters principle, or the lowest common denominator. this is akin to asking why some family kitchen table big poker winners can't beat 30/60.. if they could, they'd be doing it instead of grinding out pennies on family night w/ one-eyed jacks wild games. since they can't, they have to stick to winning the smaller games.

this is also the reason why 2/4 players move up to 10/20 games and have their br destroyed. cream rises to the top, an efficient market will always dictate how far up the scale level you can rise before you hit the ceiling..

another factor that was mentioned in yao's book in terms of teaching sportsbetting knowledge and have not been mentioned yet in this thread is that, sportsbetting is different than poker and more similar to a financial market but on a much smaller scale. therefore, if i teach you poker, the chances of you using the same skills against me is small as there are many independent table games going on at once all over the world and what you do is very unlikely to impact me. however, sportsbetting is different in that all the money essentially goes into a one large dependent pool, therefore, teaching you how to spot an edge to bet will very likely have an effect on the same edge i will have over the same bet, as essentially all books (BM and offshore) are interconnected. since sportsbetting market is nowhere near the size of billion dollar financial markets, in some cases, it will only take a few thousand dollar br for you to affect my edge in some way..