[rush66]

I understand what you are getting at in your scenario. I'm certainly not as qualified to answer that question as YTF but ill give it a shot. Id say it depends on the book. Lets say for example Im an extremely sharp off the street bookie, I mean I'm the nuts as far as bookies go. Now, the 300k/300k scenario could be realistic.

Now lets say all week ive gotten balanced action all week from both squares and sharps. Now, since Im the nuts I know the squares are gonna come in and bet on the favorite this morning. So I'm ready. If 150k worth of action came in I would most likely move it to 7 or even 7.5. Now lets say at the same time that 150k of action comes in but 3 guys I respect come in, lets say YTF, Thremp, and Perf come in (Just naming 3 off the top of my head). They each bet 10g's on side B. So now I have 450k/330k. What do I do? To the naked eye am I at risk, of course I am. But I dont feel like I am because of what just happened. It would again depend. If the same three came in monday morning when the lined opened at 6.5 and hit me up for 5k a piece I would drop the line to 6. If that were not the case I would keep my line most likely. In my opinion, its not the line movements by themselves that are the important factor, its knowing the percentages of people on each side.

If Im sitting here seeing 70% on team A day of the game, I know square money is going to come in on them. So if I see a move to 7, I dont think much of it. If I see the same scenario and see it move to 6, that is most certainly sharp money.

I was incorrect in making a blanket statement that only sharps move the lines late. Obviously that is not ALWAYS the case.

In the reality scenario. I dont think that the 500k of square money would move that line an inch, especially if its going to get hit by sharp money as you stated. This is the reason that the books test the waters throughout the week. They move their lines, especially on games they think they may have an +EV play on, to see what happens. That way when the morning of comes, they have a fairly good idea of how much square action they can take before they move the line.


For the record, I am the least eloquent person I know. So sometimes the things I say come across incorrectly or really dont make sense, so keep that in mind.